This post was last updated at 9AM Central Time May 22, 2020 and is updated roughly weekly.
This post is not intended to offer medical advice. For more on COVID-19, visit the CDC.
Walt Disney World will reopen its parks on July 11 (Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom), and July 15 (Epcot and Hollywood Studios).
Disneyland has proposed to reopen its parks on July 17.
Update: This post will no longer be updated. For Walt Disney World updates, see our Disney World Reopening Masterpost.
I’m not really one for speculation. I have a pretty strong anti-crowd calendar stance because I don’t even believe crowds are that predictable (who had 0s on the crowds this month?). And I definitely don’t believe the question asked in this post is directly answerable (sorry not sorry for baiting you, because we will talk about it and some relevant issues).
But the fact is that many of you are wondering when Disney World and Disneyland will reopen from the current closure, and I at least want to offer some perspective on how to think about this.
In any case, I see little reason to update this post significantly before the announcement, particularly because it would involve a huge amount of adjusting and just rehashing the recent Universal Orlando news.
If you’d like our most recent thoughts, following the Universal Orlando news, you should read our post on that update.
I haven’t forgotten about Disneyland, there just haven’t been huge updates from out west.
About This Post
We start with the firm dates we actually have, be it from Disney or governmental entities, that give insight into when the parks might open.
After that, we have a weekly update section. This is where we discuss the latest “updates” surrounding the issue. I put “updates” in quotes because most of the updates aren’t particularly informative.
While the various politicians and task forces are giving click-generating headlines on a daily basis, most of their work is so preliminary or so unrelated to theme parks that in a more patient world we wouldn’t even discuss it.
But since the news is out there are getting covered as “breaking” to the point of getting people excited, I like to discuss what went on this week and how it impacts our overall predictions.
Then we’ll open up a bit more and try and guess some dates. Then we talk about the factors that impact those dates. We close with a discussion of what the parks might look like when they reopen.
Disney Parks Closure Coverage
May 8 Reopening Updates — Disney Springs and Shanghai Disneyland Get Dates
Keep or Cancel? How I’m Thinking About 2020, 2021, and 2022 Disney Trips
Disney World Closure - FastPass+ and Advance Dining Reservations
When Will Disney World and Disneyland Reopen (you are here)
What are the latest dates from official sources?
Disney Springs, the shopping and dining district at Walt Disney World, reopened May 20
The official word from Disney is that the closure is until further notice
Disney World hotels and restaurants are not taking new reservations for dates until July 1
Disneyland is not taking new reservations for dates until July 1
March 19 - California Governor Gavin Newsom issues indefinite statewide stay-at-home order
April 29 - Florida Statewide reopening order issued
Phase 1, including opening retail and restaurants at reduced capacity, began May 4
We now have these two orders from governments that impact the re-opening dates:
In Florida, the order sets no date for moving onto Phase 2 of the reopening
In California, the stay at home order has no definite end date
There are also some local orders in each state, but at this point they’re more or less following the statewide orders.
We also have Disney only taking reservations for July 1 and later. This leads some people to think that’s a timeframe they’re looking at for reopening, but more on this in a bit.
We’ll keep our eyes open and update this post once Disney officially announces any updates.
How long have the Disney parks been closed?
Shanghai Disneyland Closed January 25, 2020 (107 days through May 10)
Hong Kong Disneyland Closed January 26, 2020 (118 days through May 22)
Tokyo Disney Resort Closed February 29, 2020 (84 days through May 22)
Disneyland Paris Closed March 14, 2020 (70 days through May 22)
Walt Disney World Closed March 16, 2020 (68 days through May 22)
Planned to reopen July 11 / July 15 after a 117 day closure
Disneyland Closed March 14, 2020 (70 days through May 22)
Separate timeframes may apply for resort hotels and shopping districts (Downtown Disney, Disney Springs). Disney Springs is now scheduled to reopen May 20, as covered in our May 8 update.
In this post, we’re most focused on the heart of the operations—the parks. For more light hearted reading, check out our ranking of all the worldwide Disney parks.
How long Is Disney World and Disneyland current scheduled to be closed?
As of this update (see top of post), the Disneyland and Walt Disney World closures are scheduled to last until further notice. Disney World and Disneyland are now only taking reservations for July 1 and after.
While this suggests this dates as a possible reopening date, Disney explicitly mentions the parks may reopen before that, and the date is far from guaranteed. (Indeed, the June date that was previously used turned out not to be guaranteed, either.)
The May 15 update includes Disney reiterating this date is not guaranteed, and that post also explains why we don’t think the available reservation dates are particularly meaningful anymore. As you’ll read in this post, we think the reopening is most likely going to be after July 1.
What are the cancellation and refund rules?
So far we’ve seen Disney be appropriately generous with its rules surrounding cancellations and refunds. This includes offering refunds on non-refundable ticketed events and extending passes for annual passholders. They also now have a free dining package available for impacted guests. You can read more about the refund / cancellation policies here.
May 27 Update
Disney World has announced plans to reopen July 11. We have details in that separate post and This Post is currently under significant construction.Walt Disney World has proposed plans (expected to be swiftly approved) to reopen two parks, Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom, on July 11 and the other two parks, Epcot and Hollywood Studios on July 15.
May 22 Update
Yesterday, Universal Orlando Resort proposed a reopen date of June 1. As you could infer from the rest of this post, that date caught us by surprise (but that linked post explains what we think we got wrong).Disney is expected to propose a reopening date for Walt Disney World next week (video below, around 4:30 mark), but it’s unclear whether it will be in time presentation at the May 27 Orange County Economic Recovery Task Force Meeting or whether we maybe have to wait another week. (Note they could always leak the date if they didn’t want Universal to control the news for over a week.)
Best Guesses for Reopening Dates
First, I want to say it’s important to read this section in the context of the next section on what reopening might look like. The sooner the parks reopen, the less normal they’ll be. When the parks reopen is only half of the question, how they reopen is just as important to planning your vacation.
And, disclaimers. We aren’t doctors, epidemiologists, or economists. We can’t predict the future. Nothing in this post is medical advice. And nothing in this post is meant to say what should happen. We’re only trying to bring attention to the factors that impact what may happen and to use those to develop a somewhat educated guess of what will happen.
I understand you all have a wide range of views on what’s going on, but none of our (yours or ours) views are going to impact this, unless Bob Chapek, Ron DeSantis, or Gavin Newsom suddenly takes an interest in what Disney trip planning looks like for hoi polloi.
Following the Other Resorts
I’ve gotten a lot of requests for this list—people want to know “what if it takes as long to reopen in the US as it does in Shanghai?” I don’t think these comparisons are particularly useful, but since it’s a matter of saving you some simple math I’ll give you the information anyways.
So far, only Shanghai Disneyland has a reopening date—May 11. That would make its closure 107 days. A 107-day closure would have the US parks closed until about July 1.
Another way to look at the Shanghai numbers is that the park is reopening roughly two months after the shopping District reopened on March 9. A comparable timeline (which I don’t expect) would have Disney World parks reopening around mid-July, two months after the May 20 reopening of Disney Springs.
But Hong Kong, which closed only a day after Shanghai, has no reopening date yet. Disneyland Paris is now expected to be closed through the summer due to France’s large gathering ban.
All the Disney resorts are in different markets, political situations, and positions on the epidemiological curve. I don’t see much reason to treat 107 days as a magic number.
Opinions That Are Out There
It’s important to know that there aren’t any really “informed” opinions out there on this issue. But there are enough people out there who are paid to think about this question, so we might at least want to know what they’re guessing.
A central tenet of our philosophy is that you never should settle for one opinion on something, and that includes this question. So here are some opinions from the financial sector…
UBS analyst John Hodulik has a “base case” that assumes January 1, 2021 as the reopening date.
At that same link, you can also read that JP Morgan analyst Alexia Quadrani is assuming June 1, 2020 as the reopening date.
Over at Wells Fargo, analysts expect no attendance through September 2020.
Those three opinions, from people paid well to make predictions about these things, show just how little is known about the situation. It’s also somewhat noteworthy that these people are taking their cues from business analysis, not from every
Okay, now for some more in-depth thinking. Bearing in mind that I didn’t think Walt Disney World would close to begin with (so who cares what I think), I’ll discuss three cases for when the parks might reopen…
Optimistic Case — July 1ish
I actually consider this an idealist case. But I want to give one hopeful perspective, within reason, so I’m willing to call it simply “optimistic.”
The July 1 date is the soonest, natural date that makes much sense. While there were recent surveys about June visits, we don’t read much into those, though it’s possible some late June devotees could serve as a soft opening.
We know some early June reservations are now being cancelled, and we haven’t heard any news about anyone going back to work in the Disney parks to prepare them for reopening, something that would likely require more than the 17 days left until June 1.
Of course, a mid-month opening is possible, and indeed likely. There’s nothing special about the 1st of the month, which is why we have “ish” in our prediction.
I think many people might find this a “neutral” prediction, but here are some reasons I think it’s actually optimistic.
As a reminder, only one of the three analysts we mentioned above took July 1 or earlier as a serious possibility. And this date would have the US parks closed markedly shorter than Shanghai Disneyland. Neither of those are particularly well-reasoned points, so let’s dig a little more.
Looking at one popular model, Florida cases are expected to drop steadily throughout the summer, reaching levels similar to mid-March (when the parks closed) in late June (the solid red line in the below image is mine):
This means if the return to normalcy were “like a lightswitch”, that’s when we’d expect it to get flipped back on. If you assume Disney needs a week without restrictions to get operations back up (which is itself optimistic), things would be back to normal right around the end of June.
The California data is similar, with California expected to reach mid-March levels a few weeks before Florida. But California is also a larger state (in both land area and population), and has so far taken a more cautious approach to moving forward.
In any case, the “lightswitch” back to normalcy isn’t the most likely outcome. More likely is a series of smaller shifts back to normalcy, possibly with some huge societal changes (that ultimately could hurt or harm Disney in this context). Again, this isn’t a political or policy and I don’t want to dive into it, but for reference here’s a relevant article, and here’s another.
They key here is that you’re looking at shifts—be they small or large—back to normalcy, rather than a lightswitch, theme parks are just about the bottom of the list. With respect to all of us, theme parks are utterly disgusting. Walt Disney World in particular is filled with people sneezing and coughing on this and that, handling the same handrails and armrests, screaming, handling all the same merchandise, and so on.
Outdoor concerts might be a little worse, fine, but if there’s any gradual return to normalcy, basically all gatherings of thousands of people are going to be among the last things to open, not the first.
There is at least one counterpoint to his position, though, and that’s that theme parks can more effectively control who accesses them than most businesses. It’s not cost effective for a single restaurant to use temperature checks, for example.
This brings us to…
A “Neutral” Case — August 1 or September 1
Late summer, say August or September 1, is a more neutral target. This assumes gradual return to normalcy in the country begins in May, with gatherings of thousands of people (like theme parks) not occurring until later in the summer.
I suspect that August 1 or September 1 would both also have the “benefit” of ensuring crowds stay relatively low until Christmas (in Walt Disney World, at least), which would allow Disney some flexibility in managing its costs.
I’ve wavered on this date, having August 1 then September 1 and now am just settling on calling it one of these without being sure which. I found that my feelings moved between these two dates a lot based on whether I was optimistic or pessimistic today. The point here is simply that I think a date somewhere between July 1 and Christmas is more likely than very near July 1.
A Pessimistic possibility — Open, Close, Open, Close…
This one isn’t so much a date (you could just say “after September 1”) is my pessimistic date.
Researchers at the Imperial College London have suggested we might need to implement extreme social distancing standards until new cases slow, then relax those standards until cases start to spread again, at which point we’d reintroduce stringent social distancing standards.
What exactly that looks like—where those recurring standards settle—is an open question. And along with that comes the open question—where would Disney parks fall in those standards?
Could the parks implement protocols that allow them to safely open consistently? Could we see a situation where the parks have to close regularly for Coronavirus, in the same way that beaches sometimes have to close for the Red Tide?
I think the most troubling aspect of this possibility is that it’ll be a few months before we rule it out. The parks will probably reopen while this possibility still lingers.
I categorize this as pessimistic, but I suppose it is still better than a world in which Walt Disney World Resort remains closed indefinitely.
What Does Reopening Look Like?
We’ll close by discussing what changes might be made to the resorts if and when they reopen. This is maybe less predictable than a reopening date because at least the probable dates are pretty limited. But there are probably dozens or hundreds of ideas floating around Disney right now about how to reopen, and those could be implemented in many combinations.
Will Disney World and Disneyland Reopen at the same time?
Maybe not. Florida and California continue to be on different paths in their response to the virus. While Disney executives on both coasts are probably looking at similar sets of factors in determining how to reopen and when it’s safe to do so, it’s possible that they’ve determined the can safely reopen before both governments agree.
In Florida, Governor DeSantis clearly wants his state to move toward reopening in a swift manner (as he said in his recent presentation, moving to the next phase doesn’t need to take months).
California is moving on a slower trajectory, with Governor Newsom indicating the phases in which Disney parks would reopen won’t occur for “months.”
If Florida okays a reopen, Disney decides it’s safe to do so, and California still won’t allow a reopen, it’s entirely plausible that Walt Disney World reopens before Disneyland.
I do think it’s a tighter case than comparing the two states might make it out to be. When California Governor Newsom first banned large gatherings, Disneyland was exempt. There hasn’t been much talk of Disneyland getting special treatment moving forward, but we know from that example that it will be on their mind.
Could Disney World Parks Reopen at Different Times?
FWIW, we don’t traffic in rumors. Regardless of whether anyone “hears” a park won’t reopen immediately, I’m only interested in it as a plausible idea until Disney confirms one way or another.
One idea I’ve seen floating around is that Epcot will be particularly hard hit by the loss of Cultural Representative Cast Members. The staffing issue seems like sort of a red herring, but I know very little about Disney staffing. My expectation is they’ll face a challenging road getting every park properly staffed on short notice, so I’m not sure one particular park will make so much a difference.
Besides the staffing, there is a larger operational question. Even during peak crowds, Epcot isn’t that challenging a park to visit in a single day. There simply isn’t as much demand for that park as for the other three. Animal Kingdom—as much as we love it—also only requires about 8 or 9 hours to more or less fully experience.
Hollywood Studios used to fall into that group (at which point it’s 3/4 parks and sort of a vacuous topic), but with the two newest rides at the resort, it’s doing a good job of pulling in sizeable crowds. And Magic Kingdom continues to be a titan of a theme park.
The operational question is that if guests take some times to rebook vacations (they will, even if some “pent up demand” crowds occur early), does it make sense to reopen all four parks at the same time?
From a cost perspective, the marginal cost of operating a third or fourth park is much greater than operating two or three parks are high crowds. If the crowds don’t even get to “high”, then there’s less need to even consider opening parks three and four.
The parks create some demand, sure, but I’m particularly skeptical that closing Epcot is going to scare away a large proportion of people who were planning upcoming visits.
This might be a case where we see that Disney is grateful Universal Orlando Resort exists. While I’d take Animal Kingdom over the two Universal parks any day, I have to say that a trip where you replace your visit to Epcot with a visit to The Wizarding World of Harry Potter isn’t a bad option.
The challenging is making guests aware of this notion without marketing for your competition, but it’s possible if Disney said Epcot would remain closed that Universal’s advertising team would quickly ramp up the idea that people fill their “extra” day at Universal.
Can the parks modify operations to co-exist with the virus?
We don’t know what the parks will look like when they reopen. Even if we think crowds will take a long journey to get back to typical levels, an uncrowded Disney park is still a dangerous place during a viral outbreak. Can Disney reduce that risk?
If we’re looking at some period of over a year until this is fully “dealt with” one way or another (e.g. by vaccine), Disney will likely need to find a way to reopen the parks before that.
We have a post where we speculate on what some of the rumored changes might mean for park touring. Things like face mask usage, increased sanitation and reduced capacity seem like they’ll obviously happen.
Those changes don’t directly interfere with guest experiences, but we all are keeping our eyes open for other changes. Cuts to entertainment—which encourages people to gather into crowds—seem inevitable. We saw Disneyland Paris make changes to shows and character greetings before finally closing.
Will the parks and hotels reopen at the same time?
With the hotels no longer accepting reservations before June 1, there is a possible situation where Disney reopens the parks prior to June 1 but the hotels haven’t reopened.
If the parks have to institute new sanitation procedures in light of the virus, it’s possible such a “soft opening” would allow them to see how these procedures work with smaller, local crowds before fully reopening the resort.
I hope each of you stays safe during this time, and I look forward to a day when we’re all on the other side of this.
All Your Other Disney World Planning Questions Answered
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Just starting out? Check out our Walt Disney World planning guide! If you're still picking dates, we've got everything you need to know about Disney World crowd calendars. For picking your hotel, check out our Walt Disney World hotels guide.
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Know what to ride with our guides to: Magic Kingdom rides, Hollywood Studios rides, Epcot rides, and Animal Kingdom rides! Plus learn about the water parks with our guide to Blizzard Beach and our guide to Typhoon Lagoon! And for some some fun prep, check out our Ranking of Every Ride at Walt Disney World.
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All Your Other Disneyland Planning Questions Answered
Don't be overwhelmed by Disneyland planning! Take a second to check out our most important content and you'll not only be an expert, but you'll save big $$$ along the way.
Just starting out? Check out our Disneyland Planning Guide. If you're still picking dates, we've got everything you need to know about Disneyland crowd calendars.
When it comes to hotels, we’ve got reviews of all three Disney hotels: Disneyland Hotel, Disney’s Grand Californian Hotel & Spa, and Disney’s Paradise Pier Hotel. As for tickets, check out where to find discount Disneyland tickets.
Know what to ride with our: Disneyland Rides Guide and Disney California Adventure Rides Guide. And just as important, know how to get on the best rides without the wait with our Disneyland and Disney California Adventure FASTPASS and MaxPass Strategy! For the complete guides to a day at the park, we have a One Day Disneyland Itinerary and a One Day Disney California Adventure Itinerary.
We always recommend arriving at the parks early. If you can get access to Extra Magic Hour at Disney California Adventure or Extra Magic Hour and Magic Morning at Disneyland, you’ll have the most time in the parks. Even without those bonus hours, you’ll need to know Rope Drop Strategy at Disneyland and Rope Drop Strategy at Disney California Adventure.
Finally, before you head out, be sure to check out our to-the-point packing list, 10 essentials you forget to pack for every Disney trip. And if you're interested in saving, there's no better list than our 53 Ways to Save on your Disney trip from start to finish.