No need for a lengthy introduction here. There’s news to discuss, let’s discuss it.
As part of their presentation to the Orange County Economic Recovery Task Force today, Universal Orlando proposed a reopening date of June 1, according to the following phases:
June 1-2 — Test groups (presumably comprising team members)
June 3-4 — Select guests (including possibly some annual passholders)
June 5 — Opening to public at reduced capacity.
The plan is still pending approval by the Orange County Mayor and the Governor, but the parks have been inspected by some relevant experts as part of the proposal and given the tones taken by the mayor and governor, it’s reasonable to assume it will be approved.
Here’s a list of some of the changes Universal is implementing (incomplete list, not verbatim, sorted by me):
Reduced park capacity
Temperature checks at parking or main entrance (100.3 degree maximum allowed)
Guests required to wear face covering
Virtual line at highly attended attractions
No single rider lines
Reduced capacity for rides
Encourage social distancing (signs etc.)
Distancing markers in queues
Gaps between parking spaces
No brochure racks for maps
Regulated guest flow at lockers
No interactive play areas
3D glasses handed out one by one
No mist effects
No post-show meet and greets
No parades
Face coverings for sale
Single use menus
Mobile order encouraged
Contactless payment encouraged
There are still a few things we don’t know. Importantly, we don’t know how reduced capacity will be. We also don’t know if certain guests (like hotel guests, for example) will be guaranteed entry, or whether there will be some sort of reservation slot. I personally would consider going, but I don’t need to drive to Florida only to hear I can’t enter the park.
And related to the capacity question, we don’t know how gradual the capacity increase will be.
What Does This Mean For Disney World?
I suppose it means early June is back on the table as a reopening time for some Disney parks. More importantly, it probably means we should hear something from Disney relatively soon, as I doubt they want to let Universal seize the narrative here if they can avoid it.
It’s important not to overestimate the impact Universal Orlando has on Disney predictions. Walt Disney World is operating 20+ hotels attached to four theme parks with a transportation network and possibly part of an NBA season heading their way. Universal’s operation—while quite complex to be clear—pales in comparison to what reopening Disney World would entail.
The Universal news does contrast with the latest “updates” from Disney, which has been the removal of park hours and cancellation of vacations into the middle of the month. But neither of these are gamechangers, in my opinion.
We’ve covered this a few times before, but Disney might need to cancel vacations if, e.g., they’re not planning on reopening the hotels right away. Or if they have more bookings than the reduced park capacity can handle.
If the reopenings are very gradual, then we’d expect Disney to need to cancel some bookings. Demand from locals is flexible—you can tell them the park is full this weekend and not to come. But if 20,000 people book stays at your hotels and fly in, you have a PR crisis if they can’t visit the parks.
On that note, Disney has so many options that if they wanted to compete with Universal’s dates you’d think they could. Even just opening one park with reduced capacity would be something, and would require only a fraction of the resources the resort has access to.
But again, the upshot here is at least that Disney probably won’t remain silent much longer. Depending on how they’re looking at capacity and hotel bookings, Universal could start to put a dent into Disney’s hotel bookings.
If I want to visit July 1, I can book Universal now and figure that if the Disney parks are open I’ll swing by. But Universal gets the win with the hotel booking and probably the bulk of my ticket expenditure.
According to Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings (4:30 mark, above), Disney is expected to have a plan to propose by next week, but it’s unclear it that will be in time for presentation at the May 27 meeting of the Orange County Economic Recovery Task Force. So we might see it at that meeting, or the following week’s meeting, or the date could leak some other way.
Will We Visit Universal?
I’m personally undecided. Emily won’t be visiting, and for health reasons we’re being extra cautious about her getting sick (we’d feed me to the wolves for a churro, though). That complicates things because we share a studio apartment, so it’s not as if I have a ton of room to isolate when I return.
On one hand, I’ve liked what I’ve seen online from Universal CityWalk. I’ve also been stuck in my apartment in Chicago with no access to shared space for two months now. I also have a website that needs to make money because it’s my only source of income.
I don’t particularly like Universal’s rides. I’d do a few to see how the queues go, but mostly be in the open space and perhaps a few of the stores. I think overall I’d pose and face about as little risk as anyone there.
I don’t feel like I know more about the virus than I did in early March when I made the choice to visit Walt Disney World, and I think Universal June 5 will probably be safer than Walt Disney World March 5.
But the narrative has changed over the last few months, so the “cautious” part of my brain is a bit more active simply because of what we’ve seen happen.
As a traveler, I know not to let that part of my brain alone dictate my actions (so hold your breath before you accuse me of “living in fear”).
I’ve felt the same nervousness in visiting lots of places (my pre-travel google searches are filled with “colombia crime” “north korea threatens south korea” “lebanon israel news”) and I’m still here. I’m a worrier, but I know better than to end the conversation there.
(As a side note, travel also teaches us that getting to make choices based on your worries is often a privilege, not a burden. Many people don’t get to ask “is X safe?” because X is their home or their job. I suspect many (not all) of us could take a breath and be thankful to know very little about living in fear. It’s a privilege to not have to make decisions out of fear.)
This isn’t just about me, though. Like many people my risk profile is more than my personal medical history. I have family members who sit on various positions in the risk spectrum, and the analysis of weighing my woeful position of a temporarily out of work theme park blogger against any risk to anyone else tough.
If you’re in the “what about the flu?” crowd, I actually have an answer. I had the flu last year. I didn’t see my immunocompromised mother for weeks after that, and I always make a conscious effort to avoid contact with her after a Disney trip because theme parks are cesspools.
I think some people would like to hear that I’m concerned about infecting others. I’ll just say I’m as concerned about that as is appropriate for someone who has left the apartment building once in two weeks and has sanitized compulsively with every grocery delivery. I’ll take all the appropriate precautions because there’s always some risk I’m an asymptomatic carrier, but given my current lifestyle and how much of Florida has looked, I’d say most of the risk is the other way.
So no. I don’t know if I’m going to visit. If I wind up there, we can all have an unnecessarily spirited discussion about masks, I’m sure.
Re-evaluating Costs / Benefits
A common theme in our theme park reopening posts has been how complicated this problem is, so I’m not surprised that Universal has settled on a date much earlier than we would have expected. A few days ago we ruled out June 1 for Disney parks—but I suppose we might put it back on the table?
Obviously it’s possible we entirely missed how theme parks are viewing this problem, but that’s not particularly constructive, and we prefer to think we’re not complete idiots, so let’s be more nuanced.
I think the big thing we missed is how gradual the reopenings might be. We knew this wouldn’t be “like a lightswitch,” but maybe the dimmer will move even slower than we expected.
In part, we should have already adjusted our expectations to account for this, but I failed to do so. We know that Shanghai Disneyland is ramping up to 30% capacity over a period of weeks.
Originally, we perhaps thought the parks would reopen at 30% to 50% capacity. But Shanghai showed us that was incorrect. Instead, the reopening is happening earlier with a ramp up to 30%.
We don’t know the details of Universal’s ramp up, but if it looks similar to Shanghai, then it might be that by July/August/September 1 the parks are at 30% to 50%—or right where we thought they’d be when we thought they’d reopen around those dates.
We figured that part of the challenge for the parks was that if they reopened with too low crowds, they’d be burning money. But maybe that was short sighted, because there are two good reasons to open sooner with substantially lower crowds.
First, it allows you to better test your new protocols. You need to make sure guests are complying, and more importantly you need to have policies in place that are safe AND easy to comply with. You won’t get the policies right on your first guess. Tweaks will be necessary, and a slow ramp up allows you to safely move toward the best protocols.
Second, and what I think we really missed, is the PR value of opening more gradually. With a low capacity reopening now, they’ll be showing people that the parks are safe (and they can keep them as safe as they want with reduced capacity).
As they gradually ramp up capacity, people will—in tandem—become more comfortable with the idea that the parks are safe. And so if you reopen June 1, your demand for, e.g. July 4 will be much higher than if you opened on July 1.
Conclusions
This post is much longer than it needed to be, but you can’t fault me. We have a real date! For a real theme park! In Florida! As with the intro, no need to go on here. We look forward to hearing something from Disney, hopefully soon.
All Your Other Universal Orlando Planning Questions Answered
Don't be overwhelmed by Universal Orlando planning! Take a second to check out our most important content!
Just starting out? Start with our Universal Orlando Resort planning guide! If you’re considering a Universal hotel, read our Review of Universal’s Aventura Hotel!
You’ll want to know what rides the parks offer, so we’ve got a Universal Studios Florida Rides Guide and a Universal’s Islands of Adventure Rides Guide. And to know how to get on them without the long waits, read all about Express Pass at Universal Orlando Resort.
If you’d like an idea of how to plan a day at these parks, we can help there, too. Our One Day Universal Studios Florida Itinerary covers a full day at the original park, and our Universal’s Islands of Adventure One Day Plan covers that park.
Early risers always have the best theme parks days (well, we think so). Read about Early Park Admission at Universal Orlando to learn how to get an extra hour in the parks. And read about rope drop at Islands of Adventure, including getting on the brand new Hagrid’s Magical Creatures Motorbike Adventure.