The return of Big Thunder Mountain Railroad is here! In this post we take an early look at Lightning Lane data and try to decipher to best approach to Magic Kingdom in the coming days and weeks! Here’s what to expect now that Big Thunder has reopened!
Update: Big Thunder Mountain Railroad Has Reopened
Update Time: 11AM May 6
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad has officially reopened after a year-plus closure. The rest of this post contains my “what to expect” analysis, written before the ride reopened. I expect to update it a bit more thoroughly in a few days, once the opening days surge has settled, but for right now it’s worth quickly discussing some week one data.
Delayed openings have been seen. Both May 4 and May 6 saw Big Thunder Mountain face a delayed opening. This isn’t such a huge deal, for the reasons discussed in the next point…
Trying to rope drop Big Thunder works—if you knew the backup plans. Here are some average waits from yesterday for the 9AM to 9:15AM time slots:
Big Thunder - 45 minutes
Tiana’s Bayou Adventure - 15 minutes
Jungle Cruise - 15 minutes
Now, if you had planned on Big Thunder, encountered high crowds (or, on a different day, a delayed opening), and pivoted to Jungle Cruise or Tiana’s with these times, then you definitely didn’t “waste” your morning. You would have had a Tier 1 ride done by 9:30AM.
Seven Dwarfs Mine Train overtook Big Thunder. With an average wait time of 47 minutes for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train versus 46 minutes for Big Thunder on May 5, Big Thunder was the third most popular ride in the park that day (TRON, 66 minutes, was first). This essentially puts Big Thunder in “normal Tier 1 / rope drop candidate” territory.
Same-day Lightning Lane availability has arrived. May 5 had scattered Lightning Lane availability for Big Thunder at a few points in the day, while May 6 (as of 11AM) has seen one time pop up. Taken with the above point, Big Thunder really isn’t hard to fit into a day. I wish Lightning Lane availability was at all more reliable, but between rope drop and tolerable average waits, it isn’t stress-worthy.
Every Lightning Lane Multi Pass ride at Magic Kingdom other than Big Thunder still had availability as of 2PM yesterday. If you had Lightning Lane Multi Pass and a decent strategy, you should have a great day at the park, regardless of whether your rope drop went perfectly. I don’t like spending the first ride of the day on something long (Jungle Cruise, Tiana’s), but if I can easily grab Lightning Lanes as the day progresses, it’s a sound plan.
Longterm Lightning Lane Demand remains strong. Lightning Lane Multi Pass users continue to converge on Big Thunder as their Tier 1 option. This makes the most sense, particularly in light of the multiple delayed openings we’ve seen already. 10 days out from today, Big Thunder is only offering times after 5PM, while every other ride still has availability before 10AM.
The original post, written in anticipation of Big Thunder’s Return, is preserved below for Posterity
All Your Other Disney World Planning Questions Answered
Don't be overwhelmed by Disney World planning! Take a second to check out our most important content and you'll not only be an expert, but you'll save big $$$ along the way. Just starting out? Check out our Walt Disney World planning guide!
When it comes time to book we’ll help you find discount Disney World tickets. Decide whether you need a dining plan in our Complete Guide to Disney World Dining Plans! And don't forget to book those Disney World Advance Dining Reservations!
Be sure to master your Disney World Lightning Lane Guide and Strategy a few weeks in advance. Good strategy will keep you out of long lines so you can maximize the magical time in the parks! We've got park-specific guides as well: Magic Kingdom Lightning Lane Strategy, EPCOT Lightning Lane Strategy, Animal Kingdom Lightning Lane Strategy, and Hollywood Studios Lightning Lane Strategy.
Know what to ride with our guides: Magic Kingdom rides, Hollywood Studios rides, EPCOT rides, and Animal Kingdom rides! Plus learn about the water parks with our Guide to Blizzard Beach and our Guide to Typhoon Lagoon! And for some fun prep, check out our Ranking of Every Ride at Walt Disney World.
Finally, before you head out, be sure to check out our to-the-point packing list, 10 essentials you forget to pack for every Disney trip.
Basics of Big Thunder’s Return
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad reopens May 3 at Magic Kingdom, and Lightning Lane availability is beginning to shed some light one what we can expect as far as popularity.
In case you missed it, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad closed back in January 2025 for an extensive refurbishment. While it’s ultimately returning as an improved version of the same beloved coaster, there is one big change—Big Thunder will have a height requirement of 38”, down from 40” before the refurbishment.
Even if the ride wasn’t improved at all, the lower height requirement would mean increased popularity simply because more guests can ride. And so, it’s time to start thinking about how this increased popularity impacts strategy for touring Magic Kingdom.
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad will return as one of Magic Kingdom’s Tier 1 Lightning Lanes on Multi Pass, alongside Peter Pan’s Flight, Jungle Cruise, Tiana’s Bayou Adventure, and Space Mountain. Historically, Peter Pan’s Flight and Jungle Cruise have been the most popular options, with pros and cons for booking each in advance, and long term we expect that pattern to return.
We rarely recommended booking the Big Thunder Mountain Railroad Lightning Lane in advance because it was a good option for rope drop when the west side of the park—which isn’t a part of Early Entry—opened. Magic Kingdom is a park where it’s especially important that your rope drop strategy and Lightning Lane strategy work together.
Key to this analysis is that Jungle Cruise and Tiana’s Bayou Adventure are long rides. If you can be on and off Big Thunder Mountain Railroad quickly, you’ll be getting in line for another ride while other guests are still sitting on Jungle Cruise and Tiana’s Bayou Adventure.
As a final aside, before we turn to a quick look at the data, it’s notable that Tiana’s Bayou Adventure actually had a virtual queue until February 25, 2025. This means May 3 will be the first day that both Big Thunder Mountain Railroad and Tiana’s Bayou Adventure operate with standby lines. You have to go back over three years, to January 22, 2023, to find a day when Big Thunder Mountain Railroad and Splash Mountain (Tiana’s predecessor), had standby lines together. And, if you want the final twist—Lightning Lane Multi Pass wasn’t even around then! So, while we’re all relying on historical patterns in building strategies for the future, this is actually a never-before-seen alignment over in Frontierland.
A Look at Big Thunder Data So Far
We’ll have to wait to see if the Lightning Lane availability returns to its old patterns down the road, but we can see already that, at least when it debuts, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad is going to be much more popular than in the past.
Via ThrillData, here’s a look at the earliest available Lightning Lane times for the Tier 1 rides at Magic Kingdom on May 3, the day Big Thunder returns:
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad - Fully Booked
Tiana’s Bayou Adventure - 5:05PM
Peter Pan’s Flight - 4:25PM
Jungle Cruise - 2:15PM
Space Mountain - 10:30AM
The pattern is similar through May 11—which is 11 days from today—and Big Thunder Mountain Railroad is more popular than Slinky Dog Dash (Hollywood Studios) through May 11, as well.
Lightning Lane demand softens across Walt Disney World on May 12, probably just because not many guests booked starting May 7 (which is 7 days from today, or the latest arrival date that can book as of today) are staying past May 11. So, we can see that, in the immediate term, Big Thunder will be the most popular Tier 1 ride on Multi Pass at Magic Kingdom.
How Does Magic Kingdom Touring Strategy Change?
In the coming days and perhaps weeks, it won’t be a bad strategy to book Big Thunder Mountain Railroad with your Tier 1, and since we don’t yet know what its wait times and popularity—including at rope drop—will look like, that’s what I’d be trying to do.
But if you’re worried when you see late or fully booked Big Thunder times, know that I’d also be more than happy will the following plan:
Book Peter Pan’s Flight with my Tier 1
Ride Seven Dwarfs Mine Train during Early Entry
Ride Big Thunder Mountain Railroad at rope drop when that side of the park opens
Or, if you’re concerned about Mine Train reliability in the morning (it actually looks okay recently) and prefer to buy the Single Pass:
Book Jungle Cruise with my Tier 1
Ride Peter Pan’s Flight during Early Entry
Ride Big Thunder Mountain Railroad at rope drop when that side of the park opens
The second approach is also just “safer”—it’s more likely you’ll be done with Peter Pan’s Flight than Seven Dwarfs in time to get to Big Thunder when it opens.
It’s still unknown just how busy Big Thunder Mountain Railroad will be at rope drop and the rest of the day. It’s not uncommon for the most popular, particularly new, rides to see huge waits in the morning that dissipate as the day goes on.
If such a pattern emerges, doing anything else during rope drop might be the better approach if you aren’t at the very front of the Big Thunder crowds. You can also probably walk to Big Thunder, decide what you think of the crowds, and pivot to neighboring Tiana’s Bayou Adventure if Big Thunder looks too crowded.
Altogether, as popular as it seems to be heading into May 3, this is not a brand new E-Ticket ride. Magic Kingdom is a big park with lots of moving parts, and it always requires flexibility. By understanding the challenge you’re walking into May 3 and the following days, you’re already ahead of most of guests in the park.