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2023 Update: We’re no longer writing about crowd levels or calendars at Disneyland. We recommend Disney Tourist Blog for this information. The rest of this post remains in 2019/2020 form.
Crowds at Disneyland were curiously low in 2019, leaving many of us scratching our heads planning for 2020. But finding the least popular dates is still something lots of people try to do when planning a Disneyland Vacation, and we get it.
In this post, we discuss what to expect from Disneyland crowds in 2020. Perhaps more importantly, we take a lot of time to lament the fact that predicting crowds at Disneyland is pretty much impossible these days. We close with a discussion of how to beat the crowds at Disneyland, should you encounter them.
How Will Disneyland Crowds Rebound When The Parks Reopen?
Most of the rest of this post is now irrelevant because the world has been rocked by a pandemic that has resulted in the closure of the Disney parks. While we still expect the holiday season to be the peak of crowds for the remainder of the year, it’s really tricky to pin down what crowds will look like before that.
Besides the obligatory “When Will Disneyland Reopen?” issue, there’s another big issue—Avengers Campus construction. We don’t know yet whether that opening will be delayed, which would move the bump in crowds associated with the new land later in the year.
Those two issues aside, it’s very difficult to make predictions about Disneyland crowds. A big lesson from 2019 is that bloggers really don’t know anything. We nearly universally predicted record crowds at Disneyland resort, and were instead met essentially with recent record low crowds.
In some ways, it’s easy to ask whether the low 2019 crowds provide something of a blueprint for what to expect. In theory, the principle is the same: people don’t like crowds. In 2019 it was expected high crowds because of Galaxy’s Edge. In 2020 it will be fear of even moderate crowds because of the virus.
Unlike in 2019, Disney has more advance notice of this issue, so they can avoid things like AP Blockouts, and they can use deals to bring guests in, but it’s hard to know how much that will matter. In 2019, I’m sure annual passholders would have braved high crowds to be among the first in Galaxy’s Edge. In 2020, will they feel the same way about possibly catching a terrible disease?
Several other issues—primarily whether Disney parks will implement significant operational changes to counteract potential spread of the virus would also impact things, but I think on balance more people are likely to delay a trip than to be pulled in by increased safety.
So on balance, it seems to me we can expect relatively low crowds, with a small bump at Avengers Campus reopening and a larger bump around the holidays.
Disneyland Crowd Levels for 2019 and 2020
We’re going to start by giving you a brief overview of the crowd situation at Disneyland for 2019 and early 2020. Keep in mind that Disneyland is more of a locals / annual passholder resort than Walt Disney World. (Also, we have a post on Disney World crowd calendars, if you need those.)
This means crowds are more impacted by weather, annual pass blockouts, and surprise ticket deals than at Walt Disney World, where most guests plan visits months or years in advance. Weekends also tend to see a bigger bump in Disneyland than in Walt Disney World.
Finally, a lot of what follows in this post is about how difficult it is to predict crowds at Disneyland. So again, this is all with a grain of salt.
Contrary to what many expected, Galaxy’s Edge has opened to minimal crowds. With Rise of the Resistance now scheduled to open on January 17, 2020, you’ll see bumps around the holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Years), followed by a January 17 bump through Martin Luther King Jr. Day on January 20.
Things should be pretty quiet (except for any holidays, like Presidents’ Day) until mid-March, when Spring Breaks start. The Los Angeles schools have Spring Break April 6 to April 10, ending with Easter on April 12.
After Easter, crowds should be about average until mid-May, when Grad Nights start and schools start to wrap up. Through mid-August, crowds tend to be in the medium-high range. Once Los Angeles schools start in late August and then everyone else starts by Labor Day, crowds drop significantly until Columbus Day and the start of holiday season 2020.
At some point in 2020, Avengers Campus will open at Disney California Adventure. This should cause a small surge in crowds at that park, but we’re not expecting this to significantly impact planning.
Where Can I Find Disneyland crowd Calendars?
Some popular Disneyland crowd calendars (and related content) can be found at:
Touring Plans (Paid, Affiliate Link)
What’s the best Disneyland crowd calendar?
Lolwat? I try to limit snark in my posts because I have a fundamental respect for the fact that you’re here trying to plan a multi-thousand dollar vacation…but this instance is too much to pass up.
As we’ll get into next, there’s no best crowd calendar for Disneyland anymore. Everyone’s (us included) predictions in 2019 were so abysmally bad that “best” would basically mean “A for effort.”
Fine fine fine…but what can I do?
Heading into 2020, if you want to best idea of crowds, I’d recommend looking at those above-linked calendars and paying attention to any reasoning given. Spring breaks, holidays, Grad Nite, Dapper Days, and those types of special events are good days to avoid. Besides that, the times of year you’ll think to go are probably the times of year most vacationers will think to go.
Weekends will always have noticeably higher crowds because of the locals. Other than that, our advice—visit when Los Angeles kids are in school.
Before I get into the recent struggles of Disneyland crowd calendars, I want to skip ahead. I didn’t write this entire post just to tell you crowd predictions are tough. After we get done discussing their ongoing issues, I talk about how to beat the crowds—that’s what really matters.
The point is, since crowd calendars are facing a tough situation, you should just always prepare for heavy crowds. Plan to take advantage of rope drop, FASTPASS, and a well-formed itinerary, and you’ll have a good time in crowd level 1 or crowd level 10. All of that is discussed more below.
2019: A Bad Year For Crowd Calendars
By most predictions, the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was supposed to have crowds the likes of which hadn’t been seen since 1955.
May 31, the first day the land was open, came and went, and there were no huge crowds. “Well, wait until the reservation period ends and it’s open to everyone.”
So June 24 came and anyone who pleased could visit…and again, there were no crowds to be found. Indiana Jones Adventure, a ride that often sees 80 minute waits during busy times, spent most of the day at 20 minutes.
“Well, wait until the AP blockouts end…” They ended, and…you get the point. For the fiscal year ending September 2019, attendance at Disneyland was down year over year.
That said, here’s a look at the most accurate Disneyland crowd calendar in 2019:
That’s a pile of bricks, and I went with that image because I couldn’t find a monkey throwing darts. But the point is the same—no one knew what crowds were doing in 2019.
Disney didn’t expect it. They tried to reverse the trend by bringing back the Main St. Electrical Parade and announcing ticket deals, but those didn’t move the needle much.
Best I can tell, no one responsible for writing about the parks (bloggers or journalists) predicted it. And crowd calendars, which were lit up in red with 10/10 scores for the latter half of the year were woefully inaccurate.
Will 2020 Disneyland Crowd Predictions Be Any Better?
Yes…because they can’t possibly get worse. I haven’t run the numbers, but I strongly suspect a calendar that predicted average crowds every day of 2019 probably would have beaten most other crowd calendars. It’s hard to see how 2020 predictions can do worse.
But will the predictions be any good? Probably not. While 2020 will be a more typical year than 2019, we can’t expect crowd levels to just immediately normalize. If crowds could just “bounce back,” they would have already.
Whether it’s ticket prices, people who didn’t renew their annual passes, or vacationers who delayed trips, crowds still haven’t returned to Disneyland Resort.
On the one hand, you might walk away from this thinking “great crowds will be low for a while!” But the situation isn’t that simple. It isn’t the simple because Disney can’t let it be that simple, because they need crowds.
Disneyland Resort is under new leadership, its former president having taken over as president of Walt Disney World. And you can bet new leadership means new ideas for bringing back the crowds. And when they return, you’ll want to know how to bear them!
How To Beat High Crowds at Disneyland
If you wind up at the parks when the crowds are miraculously low, that's awesome. But if you’re there when the crowds are high, you're going to need to know how to beat them. Let's cover some basics.
Understand Rope Drop
The single most important thing you can do to beat the crowds at Disney parks is to arrive early. You want to be at the park for “rope drop”—the time when guests are first allowed on rides. I’ve botched rope drop before by arriving too late on a holiday weekend, but if you arrive early enough you’ll be able to stay ahead of the crowds for the first few hours, covering multiple popular rides.
We also have posts covering rope drop at Disneyland:
Use FASTPASS and MaxPass at Disneyland
We have a guide to using FASTPASS and MaxPass at both Disneyland park and Disney California Adventure. The sad truth is too many people arrive at the parks with very limited, if any, understanding of these systems. You can't beat the crowds without understanding the FASTPASS system.
Pick Your Midday Attractions Carefully
There are going to be almost no short lines in the middle of the day. At that point, you've got two choices, assuming you're having no luck with FASTPASS. First, you can lean in to the crowds. This means picking one or two rides with fun queues, preferably indoors, and waiting in them. Disney Tourist Blog has a list of the best queues in Disneyland.
But really, there’s more to every Disney park than rides. Midday is really the best time to target non-ride attractions. This means parades, show (like PhilharMagic or Frozen Live at the Hyperion) and other entertainment listed in the times guide and app (e.g. the Dapper Dans and other streetmosphere).
In most cases, if you’re catching these in the morning, you’re doing it wrong. And if you're skipping out on them because you think rides must be better, well, we think you're probably doing it wrong, but we get it.
To get an idea of how this should work, we recommend checking out our one-day park itineraries. You’ll usually see we go fast in the morning, slowing down during the heavy afternoon crowds.
Here are the itineraries for the parks at Disneyland Resort:
Stay Late
When crowds are at their highest, the park hours will extend late into the night, sometimes to midnight. Take advantage of every hour Disney gives you, particularly after fireworks when many guests leave!
Conclusions
2019 was a failure for crowd calendars. 2020 will maybe be a big test. We might look back and see this as a strange time, or unpredictable crowds might be the new normal.
The truth is, if you’re planning carefully, you'll be minimally impacted by crowds. Between rope drop and FASTPASS, you should be positioned well to relax through the afternoon, when crowds are at their highest.
Those rides you do wait in line for midday? They shouldn’t be the rides with waits of an hour plus. You cover those with rope drop and FASTPASS. Double the crowd might take one of your lines from 20 to 40 minutes, but that's within the margin of error of Disney's line times anyways (joke, sort of).
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All Your Other Disneyland Planning Questions Answered
Don’t be overwhelmed by Disneyland planning! Take a second to check out our most important content and you’ll not only be an expert, but you’ll save big $$$ along the way.
Just starting out? Check out our Disneyland Planning Guide. When it comes to hotels, we’ve got reviews of all three Disney hotels: Disneyland Hotel, Disney’s Grand Californian Hotel & Spa, and Disney’s Pixar Place Hotel. As for tickets, check out where to find discount Disneyland tickets.
Know what to ride with our: Disneyland Rides Guide and Disney California Adventure Rides Guide. And just as important, know how to get on the best rides without the wait with our Disneyland Lightning Lane Strategy! For the complete guides to a day at the park, we have a One Day Disneyland Itinerary and a One Day Disney California Adventure Itinerary.
We always recommend arriving at the parks early. If you can get access to Early Entry at Disneyland and Disney California Adventure, you’ll have the most time in the parks. Even without those bonus hours, you’ll need to know Rope Drop Strategy at Disneyland and Rope Drop Strategy at Disney California Adventure.
Finally, before you head out, be sure to check out our to-the-point packing list, 10 essentials you forget to pack for every Disney trip. And if you’re interested in saving, there’s no better list than our 53 Ways to Save on your Disney trip from start to finish.